Market reports in 2025 described a sharp contraction in fine unheated Madagascar sapphire above five carats, with some trade sources citing reductions on the order of seventy percent from peak availability.
Madagascar filled an important niche between commercial African heated goods and fine Ceylon unheated stones. When large clean unheated parcels thin out, buyers redirect budgets toward Ceylon or accept heated material.
Origin laboratories can separate many Madagascar stones from Ceylon when inclusions and chemistry cooperate, but face-up colour overlap is real. The supply squeeze raises Ceylon asking prices at the margin even when the stones look similar in a photograph.
Mining politics, export rules, and pit exhaustion in producing areas all contribute. The squeeze may ease if new districts produce, but no quick fix appeared in 2025 reporting.
